The Deciders

With the latest presidential polls predicting an incredibly tight race, we thought it would be instructive to take a closer look at those Americans who are likely to decide this race.

Drawing upon data from our latest Willow Poll, conducted in September 2024 with a nationally representative sample of 1,080 U.S. adults, we examine the attitudes and characteristics of likely voters who are still undecided about who they will vote for in the upcoming presidential election, and new voters who did not vote in 2020, but say they are likely to vote in 2024.

Most Americans Are Consistent Voters

Most Americans in our survey are consistent party voters (73%). They either voted for Biden in 2020 and plan to vote for Harris in 2024 or they voted for Trump in 2020 and plan to vote for Trump in 2024.

Just 6% are switchers, who voted for Biden in 2020 but plan to vote from Trump this year, or conversely, voted for Trump in 2020 but plan to vote for Harris this time.

Another 6% of likely voters are still undecided, while 15% are new voters who did not vote in 2020, but say they are very or somewhat likely to vote in 2024. In this blog post, we’ll be taking a closer look at “Undecided Voters” and “New Voters” who will likely make the difference in such a tight race.

The Deciders
Who they are

Undecided Voters skew older, female, and White.

– Half of Undecided Voters are 60 years of age or older (51%)
– Six in ten are women (61%)
– 64% are White

New Voters skew significantly younger and non-White.

– Two-thirds of New Voters (66%) fall into the Generation Z or Millennial generations. The average age of New Voters is 38.6 years, compared to 51 years for all likely voters.
– New Voters are also much more racially diverse than the general population.

Political Identification

Undecided Voters tend to identify as Republican (42%) or Independent (39%), but most consider themselves middle of the road (71%) rather than liberal (6%) or conservative (24%).

New Voters skew Democrat (36%) or Independent (39%) but are decidedly mixed when it comes to their political leanings. Half consider themselves middle of the Road (46%), while the balance divide roughly equally between liberal (25%) and conservative (29%).

Given their political leanings, it is not surprising that 2024 Undecided Voters slightly favored Trump in 2020. New Voters are leaning toward Harris in 2024, though 13% of New Voters are still undecided.

Feelings about the country

Undecided Voters are generally unhappy with the way things are going in the country. Compared to all likely voters, Undecided Voters are more likely to believe the country is on the wrong track (82%) and are much less optimistic about the future of the country (57% not optimistic).

New Voters look much like the general electorate when it comes to their feelings about the direction of the country. Like all likely voters, most New Voters believe the country is on the wrong track (68%), but a majority still remain optimistic (61%) about the future of the country.

Primary Concerns

Undecided Voters and New Voters share many of the same top concerns as the general electorate, including significant concerns about inflation, the rise in gun violence and mass shootings, rising crime in general, and the rise in illegal immigration.

Democracy and rights

However, compared to all likely voters, Undecided Voters are significantly less likely to be worried about the future of our Democracy, a party or candidate stealing or interfering with an election, restrictions on freedom of speech, and the rollback of women’s rights and LGBTQ rights. The one exception is the rollback of abortion rights. Undecided voters are similar to all likely voters in their level of concern about the rollback of abortion rights.

By contrast, New Voters are similar to the general electorate when it comes to their level of concern about losing our Democracy, a party or candidate stealing or interfering with an election, restrictions on freedom of speech, and the rollback of women’s rights, abortion rights and LGBTQ rights.

Economic Concerns

Aside from inflation, Undecided Voters are less worried about economic issues in general. Compared to all likely voters, Undecided Voters are less concerned about their social security benefits, a potential recession, a housing crisis, or unemployment / job loss.

By contrast, New Voters feel a tremendous amount of economic insecurity and are significantly more likely than all likely voters to be worried about their future social security benefits, a potential recession, healthcare expenses, a housing crash and potential job loss.

Implications

While Undecided Voters and New Voters share many of the same top concerns about inflation, crime and gun violence, and illegal immigration, in most other ways these two important populations that could determine the outcome of the election are strikingly different.

– Undecided voters are older, more likely female and White. They lean conservative but tend to be middle of the road. Many voted for Trump in 2020 but are not convinced he’s the answer for 2024. Yet, they are less likely to respond to political messaging that focuses on existential threats to our democracy or the rollback of rights, and are more likely to vote for the candidate that they believe will do the most to stem inflation, crime, and illegal immigration. They just haven’t decided which candidate that is yet.

– New Voters are younger and more diverse. Like the general electorate, they are concerned about the direction of the country but hold onto hope for the future. At the same time, New Voters are worried about our Democracy and the rollback of rights and are also weighed down by a broad range of economic concerns. Harris is likely to capture more New Voters, but, if elected, will have to work quickly to address their many concerns. While New Voters lean toward the Democratic Party, they are not necessarily party loyalists. Just one quarter of New Voters consider themselves liberal, about the same proportion consider themselves conservative, while half say they are middle of the road.

Of course, which of these groups weighs heavier in the outcome of the election will be determined by who shows up at the polls.

About the Survey

Unless otherwise noted, data in this report come from our recent “Willow Poll,” which explored confidence in institutions, the national mood, and other social and political issues. The study, conducted in September 2024, is based on online interviews with a nationally representative sample of over 1,000 Americans age 18 and over. Demographic quotas were established based on U.S. Census Bureau data.

Interviewing was conducted online by Dynata, one of the world’s leading and most well-established sample and online panel providers.

This is the first of many blog posts from Willow Poll that will be published in the coming months. Sign up for our blog to receive future posts.